Sistema Eletrônico de Administração de Eventos da UFGD, XII SICONF - Simpósio de Contabilidade e Finanças de Dourados

Tamanho da fonte: 
FIRM-LEVEL INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY IN BRAZIL
Joao Zeferino Junior, Claudio Marcelo Edwards Barros, Leandro Menezes Rodrigues

Última alteração: 2022-11-27

Resumo


This paper aims to examine how shocks arising from Economic Policy Uncertainty affect corporate investment effectively made by Brazilian companies. The literature support is arranged considering the propagation of uncertainty through real-options effect channel (Bernanke, 1983; Rodrik, 1991; and Dixit and Pindick, 1994). On firm-level, the screening dataset considers 40 (forty) quarters (from 2010 to 2019) of data disclosed by 149 companies listed on Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3). The dependent and independent variables are Corporate Investment (Capex) and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU index), respectively. The baseline model considers as firm-level control variables size (size), turnover (turn), tobin ratio (tobin), operational cash flow (cfo) and long-term debt (debt_lt). As macroeconomic level, this investigation considers central bank activity index (ibc), inflation (ipca), interest rate (selic), exchange rate (exch) and equity market index (ibov).  The multivariate analysis is developed under three Hypothesis. The results confirm the negative relationship between Corporate Investment and Economic Policy Uncertainty. Additionally, the inferential analysis supports that this relation can be observed through previous 17 (seventeen) quarters. There is no evidence that Brazilian Economic Policy (IIE-br) affects Corporate Investment. To examine how solid are the results obtained, 4 (four) different robustness checks were implemented.

Texto completo: DOC